Descriptive Title: Proportion of households likely to move away from San Francisco in the next three years
Geographic Unit of Analysis: Zip code
|Proportion of Households Likely to Move Away in the Next Three Years (2011)|
|Zip Code||Neighborhoods||Very Likely||Somewhat Likely||Not Too Likely||Not Likely At All|
|94102||Downtown Civic Center||13%||14%||29%||41%|
|94107||Potrero Hill, SOMA||11%||30%||26%||32%|
|94108||Nobb Hill, Financial District||5%||12%||27%||55%|
|94109||Downtown Civic Center, Nob Hill, Russian Hill||11%||17%||30%||38%|
|94110||Mission, Bernal Heights||8%||15%||26%||49%|
|94111||Financial District, North Beach||na||na||na||na|
|94112||Outer Mission, Ocean View, Crocker Amazon||4%||15%||22%||55%|
|94114||Castro, Noe Valley||4%||16%||31%||49%|
|94115||Western Addition, Pacific Heights||8%||20%||27%||40%|
|94116||Parkside, Outer Sunset||4%||14%||26%||52%|
|94118||Inner Richmond, Presidio Heights||9%||19%||30%||38%|
|94121||Outer Richmond, Seacliff||9%||11%||28%||49%|
|94122||Outer / Inner Sunset, Golden Gate Park||6%||19%||26%||44%|
|94123||Marina, Russian Hill||11%||21%||32%||34%|
|94127||West of Twin Peaks, Ocean View||4%||10%||19%||66%|
|94131||Diamond Heights / Glen Park, Twin Peaks, Inner Sunset||6%||15%||23%||52%|
|94132||Lakeshore, Ocean View||5%||17%||26%||46%|
|94133||Russian Hill, North Beach||4%||20%||27%||46%|
|94134||Visitacion Valley, Excelsior||4%||17%||19%||56%|
Residents' plans to stay in their communities may reflect social networks and feelings of belonging among community members. Neighborhoods that experience less residential mobility are more likely to develop lasting, supportive social networks among residents than neighborhoods with high residential mobility.
Social networks and social integration are beneficial to health: Healthy People 2010 asserts that the social environment—including interactions with family, friends, coworkers, and others in the community—has a "profound effect on individual health."a For example, social support can buffer people from the negative psychological effects of life stress.b One review of over 100 studies concluded that social support for pregnant women improves fetal growth.c Other studies have found that women who receive social support have healthier babies, fewer complications in pregnancy and birth, and less postpartum depression.d
Emile Durkheim's work on suicide showed that the lowest rates of suicide occurred in societies with the highest degrees of social integration.e In Alameda County in 1979, researchers found that men and women who lacked ties to others were 1.9 to 3.1 times more likely to die during the follow-up period than those who had many contacts.f Other studies have linked specific health conditions—such as strokes, death from cardiovascular disease, and the common cold—to having fewer social ties.c,g
This indicator illustrates the responses from San Francisco residents who participated in the 2011 City Survey about how likely they are to move away from San Francisco in the next three years. The map and table present answers by zipcode.
In the following zipcode neighborhoods, more than 10% of respondents surveyed stated that they are very likely going to move away in the next three years: Downtown/Civic Center (94102/94109), South of Market (94103/94107), Potrero Hill (94107), Russian Hill/the Marina (94123) and Nob Hill (94109). In the following zipcode neighborhoods, 55% or more of respondents surveyed stated that they are not likely going to move away in the next three years: West of Twin Peaks (94127), Ocean View (94127/94112), Visitacion Valley/Excelsior (94134), Outer Mission/Crocker Amazon (94112), and the Financial District/Nob Hill (94108).
As illustrated on the map for Indicator H.1.d Home Ownership, the likelihood of moving away correlates closely with proportion of owner-occupied households. Recent events such as the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, the recent mortgage foreclosure crisis and rise in unemployment rates have significantly impacted residential demographics and mobility in the Bay Area. Certain communities, particularly low-income communities of color, have been disproportionately affected by the changes and resulting demographic shifts.
Over the past forty years, the African American community in particular has experienced significant residential mobility. According to a 2009 report by the Mayor’s Task Force on African-American Out-Migration, the number of African Americans residing in San Francisco in 1970 was about 88,000. By 2005, the number had dropped to 46,779. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of African American households decreased by 20.3%, while the number of non-African American households increased by 11%.h
Although the data is not presented above, the City Survey also provides resident responses to the question by respondent’s race/ethnicity. According to the 2011 City Survey, a higher percentage of respondents of Mixed Ethnicity/Other (10.4%), Black/African Americans (9.4%) and Native American Indians (9.1%) were “very likely” to move away from San Francisco than Asian/Pacific Islanders (7.3%), Latinos/Hispanics (7.3%), or Whites/Caucasians (7.9%).
The City Survey is conducted annually by the San Francisco Controller's Office in order to measure residents' opinions about the quality and level of City services. 1000 residents were randomly selected from each supervisorial district and 3,979 mail, phone, and web surveys were completed for a response rate of 37% when accounting for undeliverable surveys. The survey was available in English, Spanish, and Chinese. The overall distribution of survey respondents’ demographics was determined to be similar to the most recent census estimates and so no additional sampling was conducted.
The question used to construct this map and table was, "In the next three years, how likely are you to move out of San Francisco?" The possible answers were "very likely," "somewhat likely," "not too likely," or "not at all likely." A total of 3979 respondents answered this question. The table shows the percent of respondents in each zipcode who gave each answer. The map shows the percent of respondents in each zipcode who answered that they were either "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to move out of San Francisco in the next three years.
For more information, the City Survey Report 2011—including information about the survey responses and methodology and a sample survey questionnaire—is available at: http://co.sfgov.org/webreports/details.aspx?id=1343.
Since each zip code may contain one or more neighborhoods, it is not possible compare the answers given by people living in different neighborhoods within the zip code. It is also important to remember that different respondents may have given the same answers, but for different reasons: for example, some residents may plan to stay in the same community because they are happy there, while others may feel they lack the resources to move. This indicator does not give any information about residents' plans to move within the city of San Francisco.
Neighborhood social cohesion is not a time-static concept; movement of residents, organizations, and businesses into and out of a neighborhood can impact the social dynamics among neighbors and other components of social cohesion. While this indicator provides a snapshot of one aspect of social cohesion, it does not provide any information about long-term trends. Residents' plans to stay in their communities represent one among many possible indicators of social cohesion within a neighborhood.
Taken alone, the fact that residents do not think they are likely to leave San Francisco does not necessarily mean that a neighborhood is socially cohesive. Similarly, it is possible for a neighborhood to be socially cohesive even if residents do not plan to stay in San Francisco. In general, neighborhood-level indicators may obscure ethnic, class, or other differences among the neighborhood population. For example, residents' plans to stay in San Francisco may indicate good social cohesion among some groups, but others may not feel integrated into the social fabric for a variety of reasons, such as the language(s) spoken, cultural or religious preferences, or physical accessibility. Thus social cohesion may be advanced for some groups while others may feel excluded.
Data from the San Francisco City Survey Report 2011 by the City and County of San Francisco, Office of the Controller. Available at: http://co.sfgov.org/webreports/details.aspx?id=1343
Map and table created by San Francisco Department of Public Health, Environmental Health Section using ArcGIS software.
Table data is presented by supervisoral district.
Detailed information regarding census data, geographic units of analysis, their definitions, and their boundaries can be found at the following links:
Report of the San Francisco Mayor’s Task Force on African-American Out-Migration. 2009. http://www.sfredevelopment.org/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=292