Descriptive Title: Proportion of job openings available to individuals without a college degree

Geographic Unit of Analysis: Metropolitan region

Job Openings in the San Francisco, San Mateo & Marin Metro Region (2008-2018)

 

Top 25 Occupations with the Most Job Openings

Top 25 Fastest Growing Occupations

# Job Openings

Weighted Median Wage

# Job Openings

Weighted Median Wage

No College Degree

99,270

$12.79

13,610

$13.62

College Degree

27,110

$51.66

13,730

$48.98

Top 25 Occupations with the Most Projected Job Openings (2008-2018) in San Francisco, San Mateo & Marin

Occupational Title

Total Job Openings [1]

Median Hourly Wages [2]

Education & Training Levels [3]

Personal and Home Care Aides

13,490

$10.98

11

Waiters and Waitresses

13,360

$10.00

11

Retail Salespersons

10,980

$11.95

11

Cashiers

10,050

$11.31

11

General and Operations Managers

5,760

$61.16

4

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

5,520

$10.38

11

Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop

5,520

$10.17

11

Customer Service Representatives

4,640

$19.31

10

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners

4,550

$12.57

11

Registered Nurses

4,470

$48.72

6

Accountants and Auditors

4,450

$37.07

5

Computer Software Engineers, Applications

4,350

$51.20

5

Office Clerks, General

3,510

$15.88

11

Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

3,400

$26.22

10

Cooks, Restaurant

3,370

$12.98

9

Dishwashers

3,220

$9.95

11

Security Guards

3,090

$14.23

11

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

3,020

$13.53

11

Stock Clerks and Order Fillers

2,940

$12.32

11

Food Preparation Workers

2,930

$10.91

11

First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers

2,910

$27.96

8

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

2,770

$44.85

5

Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers

2,770

$10.19

11

Lawyers

2,660

$75.79

1

Management Analysts

2,650

$44.10

4

25 Fastest Growing Occupations in San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin (2008-2018)

Occupational Title

Annual Average Employment

% Change

Median Hourly Wage [2]

Education & Training Levels [3]

2008

2018

Biomedical Engineers

510

990

94.1

$49.13

5

Biochemists and Biophysicists

960

1,410

46.9

$43.93

2

Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists

3,800

5,570

46.6

$43.35

2

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

4,420

6,400

44.8

$44.85

5

Personal and Home Care Aides

24,270

34,730

43.1

$10.98

11

Financial Examiners

690

910

31.9

$50.68

5

Computer Software Engineers, Applications

11,010

14,420

31.0

$51.20

5

Computer and Information Scientists, Research

790

1,020

29.1

$56.10

2

Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors

3,300

4,220

27.9

$22.28

7

Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software

7,290

9,280

27.3

$54.06

5

Pharmacy Technicians

1,650

2,080

26.1

$19.96

10

Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

570

710

24.6

$27.80

9

Industrial Engineers

960

1,190

24.0

$44.25

5

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians

610

750

23.0

$17.84

6

Compliance Officers, Except Agriculture, Construction, Health and Safety, and Transportation

2,760

3,380

22.5

$35.98

9

Home Health Aides

3,040

3,700

21.7

$11.19

11

Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors

1,210

1,470

21.5

$24.78

11

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

4,590

5,540

20.7

$44.63

5

Personal Financial Advisors

5,670

6,750

19.0

$62.86

5

Biological Technicians

1,230

1,450

17.9

$23.19

6

Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists

1,510

1,780

17.9

$32.98

5

Statisticians

510

600

17.6

$41.67

3

Natural Sciences Managers

1,250

1,470

17.6

$75.56

4

Special Education Teachers, Preschool, Kindergarten, and Elementary School

910

1,070

17.6

[4]

5

Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers

690

810

17.4

$11.48

11

Why Is This An Indicator Of Health and Sustainability?

For working age adults, employment is a fundamental resource for good health.a Employment is the primary source of income for working age adults and is necessary for material needs such as food, clothing, shelter, and leisure.b Educational attainment is directly related to employment status and income, with unemployment higher and income lower among those with lower educational achievement.

Interpretation and Geographic Equity Analysis

The tables above illustrate the number and average wages of the occupations with the greatest number of projected job openings and greatest projected job growth by 2018.  The first table summarizes the second two tables by illustrating the projected number of job openings and the weighted median wages for jobs that require a college degree and those that do not require a college degree.   In the second two tables, occupations are listed by the projected number of job openings.  Occupations in black are ones that require less than a college degree.  Occupations in bold blue are ones that require a college degree.  The methods section below outlines the different education and training requirements associated with each occupation.

In San Francisco, the supply of entry level jobs accessible to individuals with a GED / high school diploma is increasingly located in the service sector economy, renowned for its low wages and lack of benefits.   As illustrated in the tables above, by 2018, it is expected that four of every five  job openings in the San Francisco metropolitan region will be jobs that do not require a college degree. The average wages of these jobs is less than $13 per hour, which is less than the $14.34 per hour wages needed for basic self-sufficiency for one adult without any dependents (see EC.1.a http://www.sfindicatorproject.org/indicators/view/132).   By comparison, the average wages of the occupations with the largest projected number of openings that require a college degree are roughly four times the wages of those without a college degree.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, San Francisco experienced significant growth in particular economic sectors, specifically related to technology and the internet. This economic growth generated numerous jobs for college-educated individuals, but relatively few new jobs were created for individuals with a high school diploma or GED.   As illustrated in the table describing the 25 fastest growing occupations, the majority of occupations are those involving advanced computer or technical skills and 15 of the 25 occupations require a bachelors’ degree.  

By contrast, personal and home care aides are one of the lowest paying occupations (median wage is $10.98 per hour) and account for the highest percentage of projected job openings of all occupations.  Among the top 25 fastest growing occupations in the San Francisco metro region, personal and home care aides represent roughly one of every three job openings and roughly four of every five job openings for individuals with less than a bachelors’ degree.

Numeric change is important to consider along with percent change, because both types of change are affected by the size of employment in an occupation. Occupations with a large base of numeric employment may be creating large numbers of new jobs yet have small percent changes. Occupations with a small base of numeric employment may be creating a small number of new jobs yet have large percent changes. For more information about occupational projections calculations, visit: http://www.projectionscentral.com/Projections/AboutLT

Similar to elsewhere in the United States, San Francisco’s supply of industrial jobs has been on the decline. Locally called "production, distribution and repair" or "PDR" jobs, these SF jobs often provided higher wages for employees with the least formal education. For example, hotel and restaurant jobs pay on average under $11 per hour. Jobs in typical PDR businesses such as printing and trucking pay about $14 per hour. See the SF Planning Department/Economic & Planning, Inc. report, Supply/Demand Study for Production, Distribution, and Repair (PDR) in San Francisco’s Eastern Neighborhoods: http://www.sfgov.org/site/planning_index.asp?id=25364

Methods

Data presented are from the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD) and represent the March 2009 benchmark.  Data is for the San Francisco- San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division, which represents San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties.  Data was not available for San Francisco county alone. 

The website offers data on the top 50 occupations for each category, however only the top 25 fastest growing occupations and top 25 occupations with most projected job openings are presented due to space constraints.

For the first table, total job openings were calculated by adding all occupations with a occupational education and training classification of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 together (first professional degree through associate degree) to develop “college degree” level of training, and added all occupations with classification of 7,8,9,10, or 11 together (post secondary vocational training to short term on the job training) to develop a “no college degree” category.  Weighted median wages were calculated by multiplying the number of job openings and the projected wages, and then averaging the wages by the total number of job openings for the two categories (no college degree) or (college degree).

For the second table “Top 25 Occupations with the Most Projected Job Openings (2008-2018)” and the third table “25 Fastest Growing Occupations”: 

[1] Total job openings are the sum of new jobs and replacement needs. Some occupations may have no growth (new jobs), however they have a substantial number of job openings due to the need for replacements. Replacement needs estimate the number of job openings created when workers retire or permanently leave an occupation and need to be replaced.  

[2] Median Hourly and Annual Wages are the estimated 50th percentile of the distribution of wages; 50 percent of workers in an occupation earn wages below and 50 percent earn wages above the median wage. The wages are from the 2010-1st quarter and do not include self-employed or unpaid family workers.

[3] The Bureau of Labor Statistics developed classifications for occupational training and education needed for each occupation.  For more information on the classifications, please see the BLS Training Definitions: http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?PAGEID=172   In the tables above:

  •  1 - First Professional Degree - LLD/MD
  •  2 - Doctoral Degree
  •  3 - Master's Degree
  •  4 - Bachelor's Degree or Higher and Some Work Experience
  •  5 - Bachelor's Degree
  •  6 - Associate Degree
  •  7 - Post-Secondary Vocational Education
  •  8 - Work Experience in a Related Occupation
  •  9 - Long-Term On-the-Job Training
  • 10 - Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training
  • 11 - Short-Term On-the-Job Training

[4] In occupations where workers do not work full-time all year-round, it is not possible to calculate an hourly wage.

Limitations

The occupational projections developed for 2008 occurred prior to the major economic recessions of 2008-2010.  Certain occupations, including those in the construction/buildings and trades and services industries, were particularly impacted by the recession and may have resulted in changes to occupational projections moving forward.  Significant layoffs resulting in major unemployment and increased competition for jobs may further impact occupational projections for the coming decade.  As noted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “To the extent that recessions can cause long-term structural change, they may impact the projections. However, BLS does not project recessions.” (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_faq_001.htm)

The occupational projections are based on estimates of both part-time and full-time employment, however do not provide information on the anticipated length of employment.  For example, certain occupations may be more likely to hire seasonally and other occupations may be more or less likely to be hired during an economic recession.  These differences are not addressed in the long term projections.

The current employment estimates and future projections in occupational growth are based on tax and employment data provided by employers.  Occupations that employ individuals who are regularly characterized as independent contractors and/or who work in the informal sector are likely underrepresented in the occupational projections.  Informal sector positions are often filled by less educated individuals who may or may not have legal status within the United States. 

The American Community Survey estimates that between 2006 and 2010, 85.7% of San Franciscans over the age of 25 have a high school diploma, a GED, or a higher degree and 51.2% of San Franciscans have a bachelor’s degree or higher.  In contrast, 80.7% of Californians over the age of 25 are high school graduates or higher, and 30.1% of Californians have a bachelor’s degree or higher. Given the high average educational attainment in San Francisco, individuals who did not graduate from high school may have a harder time competing for entry level jobs in San Francisco than in other parts of California.

The mean wages stated above for various occupations represent the average wage for all people employed in that occupation in the San Francisco metro region.  Therefore a significant number of individuals employed in those occupations earn less than or equal to that wage amount.   Some low-wage occupations are more likely to experience wage theft, or non-payment of wages earned (see http://www.nelp.org/page/-/brokenlaws/BrokenLawsReport2009.pdf?nocdn=1) than other occupations, which further limits the workers’ ability to obtain a self-sufficiency wage. 

Data Source

Data is from the California Employment Development Department, Occupations in Demand estimates for 2008-2018. Available at: http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/Content.asp?pageid=146

Tables and calculations developed by SFDPH.

  1. The Solid Facts: Social Determinants of Health. World Health Organization. Europe 2004.
  2. Morris JN, Donkin AJ, Wonderling D, Wilkinson P, Dowler EA. A minimum income for healthy living. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2000; 54(12):885-9.